The End of the Beginning

My September In-Running (IR) Trading Update

OK so here we go again. After two winning months in a row I knew I had to work extra hard to maintain that. I figured that if I can get to three months of consecutive green that can’t be a fluke can it?

Each month though no matter how well you did last month the clock re-sets to zero and it’s time to go again!

At the bottom of this post are my thoughts for moving forward and a decision I’ve got to make about my blog.

This Month’s Headline Figures

Just one Red day, three days where I watched some races but didn’t find a trade that matched my strict criteria and three days where I took the day off. (I quite enjoyed the days off and I plan on taking one day a week off going forward.) All the other days, (23) were green.

My starting bank at the beginning of the month was £866.52 and my bank ended up at £1,204.33 an increase of 39%. To me that’s a staggering amount especially as I’m not overtrading, I’m trading very few races each day and trying to avoid all but the safest of trades.

Since I changed to having my liability set to 5% of bank it has steadily grown my stakes without me even realising it which is great. I never start a race thinking “be careful I’m using bigger stakes” I just watch the race and trade it as I see it regardless of the fact my stakes have more than doubled since the start of July.

OK so below is my daily report, and for those new to my blog I write this each day as I go through the month. Under that is my summary of the month, my thoughts/plans for moving forward and a decision I’m mulling over about the blog.

September 1st

Starting Bank £866.52

What a terrible day. Betfair (BF) surpassed themselves in their awfulness with the quality of the In-Running video over the jumps at Newton Abbot. The stream was so far behind live that it was actually behind Sky Racing (Which itself is about 6-8 seconds behind live)

Wanted to trade but the day was a washout. Tried to watch several races but gave up.

Number of Races ?

Traded 0, 0 losses, 0 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win N/A

Daily Total ZERO

Bank £866.52

September 2^nd

Starting Bank £866.52

Missed a good trade at Gowan Park as I was a bit late switching Bet Angel (BA) on. It didn’t matter though as the first race I looked at was the first at Uttoxeter (12.40) and the BF video was fine.

I got a good L2B trade in on odds on Fav “Apres Le Deluge”.

Number of Races 1

Traded 1, 0 losses, 1 win, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £11.78

Daily Total Plus £11.78

Bank £878.30

September 3^rd

Starting Bank £878.30

Another day to test the patience. A few of the Telegram group got some trades in on the earlier races that I missed but while I was watching there wasn’t much of anything and the BF videos were terrible.

Number of Races ?

Traded 0, 0 losses, 0 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win N/A

Daily Total ZERO

Bank £878.30

Sept 4^th

Starting Bank £878.30

This was more like it. I wasn’t going to watch the early races and wait for Kilbeggan jumps later on but I switched on and got a great trade in on the 13.30 at Down Royal.

Armed with great information from Andrew in the B4P Telegram room I took a very early position on the wide drawn 2^nd Fav “Feeling Tip Top” and added more to it early in the race. The odds-on Fav had a good inside draw and started well so I was out and matched on my back bets by the time they’d gone 2 furlongs.

Low risk trade and after another small win on the next race I was able to call it a day and finish early. Always nice on a Friday.

Number of Races 2

Traded 2, 0 losses, 2 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £12.06

Daily Total Plus £15.03

Bank £893.33

Sept 5^th

Starting Bank £893.33

Bit of an escape today. Had my first red of the month but is was only 15% of my liability which was a pretty good save when it went tits up.

Manged to scrape together a few bits and pieces to just get back into the green for the day.

Number of Races 12

Traded 4, 1 loss, 3 wins, Biggest loss £6.86, biggest win £4.15

Daily Total Plus £1.88

Bank £895.21

Sept 6^th

Starting Bank £895.21

Great trade on the first race I looked at. Literally everyone in the Telegram room did a L2B on the Favourite. (Quloob)

I always know it’s a good trade when it’s so obvious that literally all of us Lay the same horse at almost the same time.

It never ceases to amaze me just how much money gets matched In-Running (IR) on a Fav. You’d think we‘d never all get matched but for the most part we do. Sometimes some of us “miss” the price as it shoots out when it becomes obvious to everyone that its cooked and the tracksiders pile in.

Anyway early finish so I can watch the live cricket on the TV.

Number of Races 1

Traded 1, 0 losses, 1 win, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £10.94

Daily Total Plus £10.94

Bank £906.15

Sept 7^th

Starting Bank £906.15

Two trades today. Nice and steady.

Number of Races 8

Traded 2, 0 losses, 2 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £6.20

Daily Total Plus £10.47

Bank £916.62

Sept 8th

Starting Bank £916.62

Perfect day. 1^st race at Newton Abbot and the Fav wasn’t travelling at all well and was mid pack. At the start of the second lap I entered on it (2 x stake) and got easily and safely matched as the price drifted as it started look in some trouble.

To make the race sweeter a good while after I was out of the trade it ran on and ended up winning the race as the horses in front tired! The fact that my servants automatically green up at about 30 – 33% profit means that although there are plenty of races where you could argue I could have won more that discipline does reduce the chances of the trade going tits up for a full stake loss.

Number of Races 1

Traded 1, 0 losses, 1 win, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £14.44

Daily Total Plus £14.44

Bank £931.06

Sept 9th

Starting Bank £931.06

After a near perfect day yesterday I had to work a bit harder today. Watched several races then I had to pop out and when I came back I watched a few more before I finally got a trade on “Sirobbie” in the 16.10 at Uttoxeter.

It ran bad and inexplicably the price refused to drift even though it should have done a lot earlier than it finally did.

I do sometimes wonder how that happens. So many people still backing it when it clearly wasn’t travelling or jumping particularly well. Anyway, decent one for me but I would have laid it multiple times if the race had been on RTV but off the BF video I’m always extra cautious as it can freeze at any time.

If I’d got that trade on my first race of the day I’d have probably watched a few more but after rushing around a bit today I was glad to switch BA off and call it a day.

Number of Races 13

Traded 1, 0 losses, 1 win, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £7.62

Daily Total Plus £7.62

Bank £938.68

Sept 10^th

Day off! Got my car sorted as it wouldn’t start after being stood for so long. Took my granddaughter to buy her birthday present. She’s 14 now which makes me feel old.

Sept 11^th

Starting Bank £938.68

Started late as Kilbreggan jumps were not on till just after 3.00pm and watched a few races between then and 4.50 pm. 2 trades one of which was not the most obvious trade but I was confident that I could get out of trouble if it went wrong.

Number of Races 5

Traded 2, 0 losses, 2 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £12.03

Daily Total Plus £16.03

Bank £954.71

Sept 12^th

Starting Bank £954.71

Tough day today as Saturdays often are, although result wise it was a successful day. I’ve been thinking for a while about taking Saturdays off. It often suffers from race overload with 6 or 7 meetings and races often run into one another. Also the highest quality races have a habit of not offering much IR for the way I trade now. If nothing is off the bridle till the 2f pole, then it’s too dangerous to enter then in any case!

So going forward I may well take the day off.

Today was particularly worrying with 4/6 meetings not on RTV so reliant on crap videos from BF.

Anyway after a day to test the patience I finally got a trade on “Yes No Maybe So” in the 15.55 at Fontwell.

Number of Races 15

Traded 1, 0 losses, 1 win, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £12.38

Daily Total Plus £12.38

Bank £967.09

Sept 13^th

Starting Bank £967.09

A day that could have been dangerous. I knew I could only spare an hour or so to watch any racing at all as I had a lot to do* so that can lead to me chasing trades that aren’t really safe. With that in mind and with BF videos on 2/4 tracks I was prepared for a no trade day.

As it happened I got one small green on a race that didn’t have the “make-up” I normally trade but it was a safe trade even so. A bit naughty of me, so happy to switch BA off as soon as I’d greened up.

*My daughter has been working from home for over 6 months and rather than work in her flat on her own, she brought her PC and stuff and lived back at home with me.

Tomorrow she is going back home, and I also have the Sky engineer coming to fit Sky in another room and fit Sky Broadband so that involved a good deal of house tidying. Not my idea of fun!

Number of Races 6

Traded 1, 0 losses, 1 win, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £3.08

Daily Total Plus £3.08

Bank £970.17

Sept 14^th

Starting Bank £970.17

I was knackered before I started so happy to switch off early and bank a small green day. Helping my daughter move house is more exercise than I need to be honest. A couple of very minor Reds today but nothing to worry about.

Number of Races 8

Traded 4, 2 losses, 2 wins, Biggest loss £0.78, biggest win £5.39

Daily Total Plus £7.06

Bank £977.23

Sept 15^th

Starting Bank £977.23

Good quick easy day. Got a couple of decent trades in early and switched BA off. If they’d been on RTV I may well have entered multiple times. I certainly would have done on the Hexham race but when the videos are so unreliable, I’m always extra cautious.

The Fav “Star of Wins” was the trade at Yarmouth and 2^nd Fav “Diamond Rock” at Hexham. From memory Star was 1^st off the bridle as they were coming round the bend. Diamond was lining up at the back pre-off, but that’s not a reason the lay something, you’ll go skint if you just do that, but it travelled poorly from quite early on and clipped the top of one quite badly while the Fav was prominently ridden and going well so that was enough for me.

As I say if it was on RTV I’d have laid it multiple times and won 3 or 4 times as much on it.

Number of Races 4

Traded 2, 0 losses, 2 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £6.43

Daily Total Plus £9.64

Bank £986.87

Sept 16^th

Starting Bank £986.87

Very pleasing day for two reasons. Firstly, the first race that matches my criteria offers a pretty easy trade and got in at a good price to win £15.96 from it. The horse came back to win after I’d fully greened up which shouldn’t make a difference, but it does make the green a little sweeter.

Because the B4P method isn’t greedy (it targets just a 30% – 33% return on the stake amount) it’s more than possible that the signals/situation we look for means we can get out well before the business end of the race when anything can happen.

The second reason it was a good day was because I passed the £1k mark for my bank.

My bank was £497.20 at the start of July and having my liability on my “BA Servants” set to 5% of bank means that as I’ve had a winning trade my stakes have increased slightly each time. This compounding effect has meant that without altering anything else I’ve doubled my bank in just over two and half months. My liability has increased from just under £25 per click to just over £50 in the process.

Number of Races 1

Traded 1, 0 losses, 1 win, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £15.96

Daily Total Plus £15.96

Bank £1,002.83

Sept 17^th

Starting Bank £1,002.83

Enjoyable day today. I’ve been very busy working on website for someone, but it was finished a day or so ago and he signed off on it this morning, so I took a day off from my day job.

The method of trading I’m trying to master with B4P is based on many factors, but discipline is top of the list. Normally each day I’d do a maximum of 4 trades and when I’m busy with work if I get one or two decent trades in early I immediately bank the green and switch off.

Not today though. 4 of the 5 afternoon meetings were on RTV and as I was feeling good about my trading, I decided I’d trade a few more today assuming that the right opportunities came along.

Got off to a great start one decent trade and one really good one. The “Sir Maxi” trade shown below is certainly one I couldn’t have confidently executed even a couple of months ago. With the confidence born of green day after green day I instantly laid it on the merest signal at an average of 1.86 and then when a slightly bigger signal came along about 10 seconds later that got me out at an average of 2.76.

The beauty of laying something at 1.86 is, it only has to sneeze to move the price enough to get the 30% profit my servants are set to.

After I’d greened up and was out of danger it managed to get itself out of the bad position it was in and it stormed through to win.

I’d normally have stopped straight after that race but I wanted to carry on and enjoy myself! Possibly because of over confidence but whatever the reason I took a couple of Reds straight afterwards but mentally I was still in a good place.

Finished the day off well with an easy trade on “Ran Rite” in the 15.35 @ Tramore and banked my best green day of the month so far.

The day was only slightly marred when Andrew (who runs B4P) saw my tweet showing 7 trades rang me up to give me a bollocking!

*I’ve added this next comment at the end of the month while looking back through my post checking it prior to posting.

Yes I realise now that the extra trades did show a lack of discipline and I shouldn’t have done them. I could easily have spoilt a good day. I hate the fact that Andrew is right all the time!

Number of Races 14

Traded 7, 2 losses, 5 wins, Biggest loss £13.22, biggest win £19.51

Daily Total Plus £29.85

Bank £1,032.68

Sept 18^th

Starting Bank £1,032.68

OK after yesterday and today going a bit crazy, I traded 7 races yesterday and 7 today, it’s time to re-set the clock and calm down from tomorrow onwards.

OK day again profit wise but got a £6.51 red in one race and I do feel I’ve been over trading.

I may even take the day off from trading tomorrow as I don’t like Saturdays much in any case.

Number of Races 11

Traded 7, 1 loss, 5 wins, 1 scratch, Biggest loss £6.51, biggest win £8.03

Daily Total Plus £21.72

Bank £1,054.40

Sept 19^th

Starting Bank £1,054.40

Day off from trading. I’ve been thinking about taking a day off each week for a while and finally did it. I’ve not traded days before but always because there was a reason, but this was just a pre-planned day off for no other reason than I thought I should take a day off!

I’ve long thought Saturdays are the worst days to trade so I binned it.

Bank £1,054.40

Sept 20th

Starting Bank £1,054.40

Best day of the month so far and my best trade. Laid an odds-on Fav at 1.64 in the first race of the day and won plenty from it. Got a bit greedy and traded a couple more races but even though that worked out OK I shouldn’t have done it really.

Number of Races 6

Traded 4, 1 loss, 3 wins, Biggest loss £1.66, biggest win £27.17

Daily Total Plus £35.04

Bank £1,089.44

Sept 21^st

Starting Bank £1,089.44

Just when I start to think “this is easy”.

Bad mistake to lose a big chunk on the 16.30 at Hamilton on Flying Moon. Late in and very late trying to get out.

Traded far more races than I should of as well today so overall I wasn’t anywhere near the level required today. Traded like a twat and got exactly what I deserved.

Number of Races 16

Traded 7, 1 loss, 6 wins, Biggest loss £32.75, biggest win £7.05

Daily Total Minus – £12.09

Bank £1,077.35

Sept 22^nd

Starting Bank £1,077.35

Back to winning ways thankfully. Just the one trade and switched off.

Number of Races 2

Traded 1, 0 losses, 1 win, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £12.34

Daily Total Plus £12.34

Bank £1,089.69

Sept 23^rd

Starting Bank £1,089.69

No trades today. Watched a lot of races not many matched my race selection criteria and none of those offered a safe trade.

Number of Races 9

Traded 0, 0 losses, 0 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win N/A

Daily Total Zero

Bank £1,089.69

Sept 24^th

Starting Bank £1,089.69

Didn’t feel too well today so was hoping for a quick early trade and switch off but didn’t get anything until “Dark Jedi” in the 14.40 at Ponte. It got a slap down the neck just after the 4f pole so I immediately entered at 2.80 and was out at 4.2 when they came round the bend as the jockey started to push hard.

Happy to switch off and call it a day.

Number of Races 7

Traded 1, 0 losses, 1 win, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £8.31

Daily Total Plus £8.31

Bank £1,098.00

Sept 25^th

Starting Bank £1,098.00

Fantastic day. Best day of not just this month but since I re-set my bank to £500 and started using 5% of bank as my liability. Obviously as I slowly build my bank up my stakes are naturally increasing so I should always be winning more if I keep going.

Got a nice trade in on the 12.30 at Uttox but the best one was on the 1.00 pm. However the best trade today was when I laid the Fav (Fusil Raffles) at an average of 1.95 so that means I got more on.

L2B entry at 1.95 and back bet exits at around 2.98 meant I was out a long way from home and as it happens it came back to win. Though I didn’t realise it had won till I saw it in the Telegram room. (I generally stop watching the race once I’ve greened up)

I clicked twice but only got some of the second clicks bet matched as the price shot out. Chuffed to bits though.

Number of Races 2

Traded 2, 0 losses, 2 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £30.28

Daily Total Plus £38.26

Bank £1,136.26

Sept 26^th

Starting Bank £1,136.26

I was planning on having a day off today but as there were 2 jumps meetings on today and tomorrow doesn’t look so good, I decided to switch my day off till tomorrow.

Good quick in and out day as I traded just 2 races which were just 10 minutes apart!

Number of Races 2

Traded 2, 0 losses, 2 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £24.83

Daily Total Plus £31.84

Bank £1,168.10

Sept 27^th

Starting Bank £1,168.10

Day off today.

If you are not profitable trading 6 days a week then trading 7 won’t help! Gives me a chance to take a break from the screens.

Bank £1,168.10

Sept 28^th

Starting Bank £1,168.10

After the Lord Mayors show! Had a great day Friday and Saturday and a nice day off Sunday so was full of confidence and anticipation for today but it was a bit of a damp squib.

With 2 jumps meetings I was hoping for better but didn’t get any jumps trades while I was watching and just one small one on the flat at Hamilton.

I certainly would have stayed and watched more races but a work opportunity turned up unexpectedly, so I had to switch off to deal with that. I’m doing quite well lately but I’m still a long way off from this taking over from my day job.

Number of Races 8

Traded 1, 0 losses, 1 win, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £4.45

Daily Total Plus £4.45

Bank £1,172.55

Sept 29^th

Starting Bank £1,172.55

Not the best day. Was hopeful with 3 x jumps meetings but 2 were on Sky so untradable. Managed to get a couple of small trades and called it a day. For those without a RTV subscription I have no idea how you trade in-running day after day relying on the BF Videos.

Number of Races 6

Traded 2, 0 losses, 2 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £7.81

Daily Total Plus £11.68

Bank £1,184.23

Sept 30^th

Starting Bank £1,184.23

When I’m having a good month I always get a little worried that I might F it all up on the last day so the fact that a nice easy trade presented itself on the first race at Huntingdon was a huge bonus.

I probably would have watched another couple of races today but as it’s the last day of the month I switched off BA to protect my new monthly record total. Everyone who was in the B4P telegram room at the time of the race was all over “Sefton Warrior” who jumped poorly most of the way round.

Number of Races 1

Traded 1, 0 losses, 1 win, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £20.10

Daily Total Plus £20.10

Bank £1,204.33

Summary and Future Plans

Well my plans for trading are for more of the same. With my liability set at 5% of bank I’ve gone from £498.20 bank at the start of July to just over £1,200 now which means my £25 liability has now increased to £60.

If I continue in this vein I’ll be at £100 liability before too long. Now I’ve discussed with Andrew about starting to take some of the profit out each month. He’s suggested a couple of ideas, for instance starting to withdraw half the winnings so I get some money out but still grow my bank/stakes each month, all be it slower.

I’m surprised how much discipline I’ve shown this year (its not like me) and I’m fairly confident that if I continued sticking rigidly to my B4P trading plan I could double my bank again by Christmas. However, if I start to withdraw profit then that will have an adverse effect on the growth speed of my bank.

As long as it still grows that’s OK but long term I have certain goals in mind and it would benefit me if I got there sooner!.

Firstly I want to get to the point where I’m winning £1,000 per month and I think it’s fair to say, based on this month’s result, that I can achieve that. My long-term dream though is to be winning £2,000 a month as that would change my work/life balance beyond measure.

By taking money out of my bank I’ll be delaying when that could happen.

I’m currently using £60 liability for “one click” though of course on a great opportunity I can enter multiple times.

So this month I’m not going to withdraw but there will come a time when the financial pressures of life will mean I may have to. My business has been severely affected by Covid restrictions and with Christmas coming along etc I will have to dip into my Betfair account at some point in the not too distant future.

I don’t want to have my children and grandchildren round Xmas day and say to them “there are no presents for you but on the plus side I’ve got £3,000 in my Betfair account”. I don’t think that would go down well!

Is it scalable?

Is what I’m doing now going to hit a ceiling at some point or is it scalable? That’s a question I get asked a lot about the B4P method of trading. There is a ceiling at some point obviously but winning £2,000 a month is easily achievable.

I’m currently using £60 liability and if I was good/confident enough I could start using £250 liabilities tomorrow and get matched as easily as I do now.

When you’re laying the Fav or 2^nd Fav IR there is so much money on the ladders you don’t have to worry about that side of things till you get way about that level.

There is a video here that Andrew made to promote B4P that shows some of his trades throughout Sept. If you look bottom right of the screen you’ll see his matched bets and on a couple of the races he lays something for over £2,500 and gets matched. (The quality of the video on my blog isn’t great so you might need to view it on the backforprofit.com homepage to see the figures clearly enough)

So the main thing is, for what I want to win my future required stakes won’t even scratch the surface.

Future growth

The excel spreadsheet here has a compound interest calculator on it and its set to a target of increasing my bank each month by 20%. I’ve hit that target for the last 3 months so the prospects are promising going forward.

The fly in the ointment as I mentioned is the pressure on my trading bank being applied by my normal daily living expenses during Covid.

Plans for this Blog

Now the reason I started this blog was to force myself to face up to my initial losses from trading. Every problem gambler in the world cons him/herself about how much they are losing, and I suspect that most losing traders do the same.

I’d won several thousand pounds doing “Matched Betting” and so had my close “friends & family” but from Jan 2019 to Dec 2019 I know I’d lost circa £5,000 trying to master trading.

When I started recording my P&L every day in Oct 2019 and using what was originally my poker blog to track my progress it was to force me to stop just losing/reloading then losing/reloading again on an almost continuous rinse and repeat loop.

I started recording my progress here to force myself to face facts. The plan was to make myself either work harder to improve or realise the futility of it all and go back to matched betting. Now I’ve turned it around that reason for the blog is no longer there.

So is this turn around in my trading ability the “beginning of the end” for this blog?

I’m a long way from being the finished article when it comes to trading and my journey towards real trading success is nowhere near the end. But I have at least stopped losing money month after month and proved to myself that with hard work and discipline I can keep moving forward.

So for that amongst other reasons, I’m seriously considering not writing the blog in so much depth anymore.

Several other reasons include the fact that when I was a consistent loser no one bothered me on Twitter or here but just lately I‘m starting to get some gentle trolling. I receive the odd comment on the blog that I don’t publish.

The usual anonymous stuff. If they put their real name to it I’d post up the criticism but when its anonymous using a fake email address then I don’t.  

Also now I’ve started winning, even these small amounts, I’ve begun to wonder at what point do I stop being a “plucky underdog” and start to be an arrogant arsehole. I think Twitter in general and the trading world in particular has enough of those, without me adding to it.

So next/this month (October) I may not do such a detailed blog as this and use the time it takes to work a bit harder at my day job. I think I’ll skip the day by day account but I’ll still do the excel sheet and maybe just write a summary of my progress.

I may even do a Video blog instead as I’m quite slow at typing and it does take a me such a long time to write all this. This post has over 4,800 words in it which is just bonkers. Also even loading all the images up is a total ball ache. It may well be easier to just say my thoughts on video.

Anyway I’ll see how I feel I’ve not made a firm decision as yet.

PS: If you are interested in knowing more about Back for Profit read my review here.