Good Bad and Ugly Betfair Trading
Betfair Trading,  In-Running

The Good the Bad & the Ugly

OK so here is my trading update for Dec 2020. This was a month that had a bit of everything thrown into the mix. I’ve done a quick video with my thoughts on some of the highs and lows which you can view at the bottom of the post. (Read my November update here if you missed it)

If making mistakes is learning, which it should be, then I’ve learned a fair bit this month. Dropped a few howlers in December with some of my biggest reds of the year.

After my last feedback session with Andrew I feel like I’m still a million miles from where I need to be.

Bizarrely after saying all that, it may surprise you to find out that December is a new record month for me.

Daily Breakdown

Here you can read my thoughts on the individual days which I write straight after trading each day. My summary and video of my thoughts are at the bottom of the post.

1st Dec

Starting Bank £2,046.89

Number of Races 2

Traded 2, 0 losses, 2 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £10.84

Daily Total Plus £16.23

Bank £2,063.12

2nd Dec

Starting Bank £2,063.12

Finished Green for the day, but just to make it interesting I did a totally brainless trade earlier to make things a bit tougher for me!

Number of Races 14

Traded 7, 2 losses, 5 wins, Biggest loss £33.22, biggest win £16.05

Daily Total Plus £11.83

Bank £2,074.95

3rd Dec

Starting Bank £2,074.95

Funny old day. Even though I had 2 reds at the start I was super confident I’d have a decent day. With 5 meetings all on RTV so I was sure I could find a couple of decent trades in that lot. My biggest loss was about 8% of my liability and others in the group traded the same horse successfully. But they are better at this than I am, and they got in earlier (lower price) so successfully greened up. Where I was a little hesitant and got in later when the price was higher. It was edging towards my hedge bets, but it rallied as the race got towards the business end and I had to take a red to be safe.

The small red was slightly more annoying as I tried a B2L which looked pretty good to me, but a horse came out of the pack to challenge the previously uncontested leader so again I took a small red. As it turned out the horse I did the B2L on won easy but better safe than sorry.

Pleased with the 2 easy greens to finish the day off.

Number of Races 7

Traded 4, 2 losses, 2 wins, Biggest loss £8.64, biggest win £24.71

Daily Total Plus £35.65

Bank £2,110.60

4th Dec

Starting Bank £2,110.60

Not much I can say about today. First full liability loss for a long time because I stubbornly refused to believe it wasn’t beaten.

Number of Races 10

Traded 4, 2 losses, 2 wins, Biggest loss £117.51, biggest win £6.17

Daily Total Minus – £120.74

Bank £1,989.86

5th Dec

Starting Bank £1,989.86

Bit of a roller coaster day. Almost did my greatest ever trade which actually turned into a £53.96 red. The horse didn’t win but I just bottled out of it, which was probably just a hangover from yesterday.

Finished on a good trade though when I got a fair bit on Frenchy Du Large in the 1.15 at Sandown.

Number of Races 14

Traded 6, 2 losses, 4 wins, Biggest loss £53.96, biggest win £85.42

Daily Total Plus £68.66

Bank £2,058.52

6th Dec

Starting Bank £2,058.52

I shouldn’t give away some of the stuff that Andrew at B4P tells me for free, but of the many things he instils in me is. This quote I really like. “The red itself doesn’t matter, that’s just trading. What really matters is what happens afterwards. Do you let it affect you or do you just carry-on trading as normal?”

Over the last 3 days I’ve had 3 reds anyone of which could have sent me spiralling down into bank busting disaster.

After the first race today when I got a big red, was I annoyed? Yes of course I was because now I’m using bigger stakes I know if I could go through the day without a Red, I could have a sizeable (for me) winning day.

But that is just trading, I was able to stay calm and convince myself that safe opportunities would come along, without trying to force things.

In the end I did get a couple of decent ones. The last trade of the day was just a scratch tbh but it was a small green, so I’ll take it.

Number of Races 13

Traded 5, 1 loss, 4 wins, Biggest loss £64.13, biggest win £39.71

Daily Total Plus £30.53

Bank £2,089.05

7th Dec

Starting Bank £2,089.05

Another piss poor day where I decided to make it difficult for myself by getting 2 chunky reds. Worked hard to grind out a green day. 

Number of Races 18

Traded 8, 2 losses, 6 wins, Biggest loss £61.68, biggest win £29.57

Daily Total Plus £10.77

Bank £2,099.82

8th Dec

Starting Bank £2,099.82

Slightly better day. Even though I got a red I’m happy with it. What I did to get it would see me get a green often enough to make it long term profitable.

Number of Races 10

Traded 4, 1 loss, 3 wins, Biggest loss £33.76, biggest win £32.83

Daily Total Plus £50.71

Bank £2,150.53

9th Dec

Starting Bank £2,150.53

Getting really pissed off with myself currently. I know one day soon I’ll stop messing around and get 3 or 4 decent greens in a day without any reds and break the £100 barrier. There were still a few races left but I was starting to feel tired so called it a day. 

Just making life hard for myself.

Number of Races 20

Traded 10, 2 losses, 8 wins, Biggest loss £102.52, biggest win £41.40

Daily Total Minus – £13.65

Bank £2,136.88

10th Dec

Starting Bank £2,136.88

Steady day no real drama!

Some small trades just added up.

Number of Races 15

Traded 7, 1 loss, 6 wins, Biggest loss £9.45, biggest win £33.79

Daily Total Plus £64.27

Bank £2,201.15

11th Dec

Starting Bank £2,201.15

Number of Races 18

Traded 9, 2 losses, 7 wins, Biggest loss £54.19, biggest win £30.57

Daily Total Plus £45.51

Bank £2,246.66

12th Dec

Starting Bank £2,246.66

A record-breaking day. When I started trading in Jan 2019, I dreamed of the days when I’d just rock up 20 – 25 days a month and win a quick £100+ trading horses!

I had a rude awakening when I quickly realised it was going to be a lot harder than I thought.

Today though, almost 2 years later I finally did it. I realise I’m still a million miles off doing this on a regular basis, but it was a nice feeling to finally do it.

Number of Races 14

Traded 5, 0 losses, 5 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £36.12

Daily Total Plus £110.54

Bank £2,357.20

13th Dec

Starting Bank £2,357.20

I was so close to not trading today but couldn’t resist it. Serves me right, got a bit cocky and the market gave me a slap.

Back to basics tomorrow.

Number of Races 16

Traded 7, 2 losses, 5 wins, Biggest loss £75.03, biggest win £23.60

Daily Total Minus – £66.29

Bank £2,290.91

14th Dec

Starting Bank £2,290.91

Just 2 trades today and neither of any great note.

Number of Races 8

Traded 2, 0 losses, 2 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £26.43

Daily Total Plus £31.96

Bank £2,322.87

15th Dec

Starting Bank £2,322.87

3 steady ones today, no drama.

Number of Races 6

Traded 3, 0 losses, 3 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £28.35

Daily Total Plus £50.39

Bank £2,373.26

16th Dec

Starting Bank £2,373.26

Had a bad one. Thought I’d spotted a nice subtle signal, but it was actually just in need of a wake up.

Number of Races 20

Traded 12, 3 losses, 9 wins, Biggest loss £191.50, biggest win £43.34

Daily Total Minus – £74.12

Bank £2,299.14

17th Dec

Starting Bank £2,299.14

No drama and a nice early finish.

Number of Races 6

Traded 3, 0 losses, 3 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £38.29

Daily Total Plus £61.83

Bank £2,360.97

18th Dec

Starting Bank £2,360.97

What a twat. I won £14 today and not so long ago I’d have been delighted with that, but not today.

I normally give all the stats here (Biggest win/loss etc) but not today. Too embarrassing.

I traded 10 races so that probably gives you some insight into what happened.

Daily Total Plus £14.27

Bank £2,375.24

19th Dec

Starting Bank £2,375.24

After being an idiot yesterday took no chances today. 3 quick trades and done for the day. Didn’t like the fact that only Haydock was on RTV and 2 of my 3 trades were from Haydock.

I can’t believe I’m the only person reluctant to trade In-Running via BF video it must cost them money that they are so unreliable.

Number of Races 7

Traded 3, 0 losses, 3 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £36.79

Daily Total Plus £69.72

Bank £2,444.96

20th Dec

Starting Bank £2,444.96

Steady day today. 3 small trades and a scratch.

Number of Races 10

Traded 4, 0 losses, 4 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £22.29

Daily Total Plus £50.51

Bank £2,495.47

21st Dec

Starting Bank £2,495.47

Didn’t like the look of the racing today. Just one jumps meeting on RTV and 2 flat meetings on Sky. So of course, when I wasn’t expecting much, I had a great day!

My 1st ever £100 race.

When I first chatted to Andrew at B4P (Feb 2020) he asked me about my current trading plan. I told him I was trying to trade 20 races per day and win just £5 per race, to earn £100 per day. He said to me that the B4P was more like “trading just one race a day but winning £100 on it because it’s much easier and safer.”

I wasn’t initially sure that could true but quickly I realised he was 100% right. Knowing it and doing it is two different things of course and it has taken me a while to get there with my bank/stakes but today I did it for the first time.

Number of Races 1

Traded 1, 0 losses, 1 win, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £105.59

Daily Total Plus £105.59

Bank £2,601.06

22nd Dec

Starting Bank £2,601.06

After yesterday I was expecting today to feel a little flat, but I was quite pleased that I didn’t overtrade today trying to do anything heroic. The trades I did today were about as boring as it gets.

There was one big opportunity on a very short-priced favourite that I could have won over £100 on but the situation didn’t quite fully match the B4P criteria until the price was too big to trade. I therefore left it alone.

Some of the experienced guys in the Telegram room traded it and did well off it but I’m still not there yet.

Number of Races 12

Traded 4, 1 loss, 3 wins, Biggest loss £4.26, biggest win £23.07

Daily Total Plus £37.80

Bank £2,638.86

Xmas Break 3 days off.

26th Dec

Starting Bank £2,638.86

Absolute horror show.

Daily Total Minus – £156.03

Bank £2,482.83

27th Dec

Starting Bank £2,482.83

Days like today make days like yesterday so annoying. Just ABC trading today didn’t try to get clever.

Number of Races 10

Traded 3, 0 losses, 3 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £24.31

Daily Total Plus £54.73

Bank £2,537.56

28th Dec

Starting Bank £2,537.56

Frustrating day. Had a chunky red which could/should have been a really good green. I feel I made a very good entry (2.66) based on a subtle signal, but the horse moved forward, and I had to take a red to be safe. Then as soon as I was out the damn thing started running in treacle and the price flew out in a second or two and it tailed off.

Pleased that I spotted what I did and if I can keep doing that I feel it will pay dividends long-term but just not today!

Number of Races 21

Traded 6, 2 losses, 4 wins, Biggest loss £43.83, biggest win £22.93

Daily Total Plus £16.45

Bank £2,554.01

29th Dec

Starting Bank £2,554.01

Upon reading what I wrote originally at the end of the day prior to posting this up, I have decided to delete my original thoughts on the day.

Number of Races 13

Traded 4, 0 losses, 4 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £37.32

Daily Total Plus £67.94

Bank £2,621.95

30th Dec

Starting Bank £2,621.95

A steady day.

Number of Races 9

Traded 5, 1 loss, 4 wins, Biggest loss £3.32, biggest win £21.93

Daily Total Plus £52.76

Bank £2,674.71

31st Dec

Starting Bank £2,674.71

See the video below it shows what trades I did today.

Number of Races 8

Traded 3, 0 losses, 3 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £31.50

Daily Total Plus £65.06

Bank £2,739.77

Summary

Some of my thoughts are on the video here and I also add some thoughts below.

After finishing the video I’ve had a think about it and decided to withdraw £739.77 from my Betfair account and start January with a flat £2,000. It’s a shame but needs must. Hopefully it will not set me back too far on the path towards my £2,000 per month target.

Here are my monthly figures and below my final thoughts on the month.

Trading Profit and Loss

So I’m writing this about 5 hours after recording the video and now the dust has settled on the month I feel better about it all now.

I’ve come a long way since I joined Back for Profit bearing in mind that I lost month after month prior to joining.

B4P has turned me from a losing trader into a profitable one. (I think I’m entitled to say that after 6 months consecutive green)

I know I’m not currently producing the results that I should be with my bank the size that it is, and that is the next goal I need to work towards. My strike rate (loss/win ratio) was exceptionally poor this month, without checking all my stats I’m fairly sure its the worst its been for over 6 months.

I’m fairly confident that I can put that right in January. I think in my eagerness to win more I was entering trades that I’d have been better off just leaving alone.

It is a fine line between being positive and therefore entering too early, so you have to exit for a red too often. As opposed to hesitating to be safe and then getting a bad entry price.

Some days you can’t do it right whichever way you go and other days its as easy as falling off a log.

I’m going to concentrate on reducing the number of trades I do per day in Jan and that will help.

For any of you thinking “Christ you’re doing well I wish I was winning that much” I have to tell you that most in the group who have been in longer than me are far more profitable than I am.

My bank is big enough at this point to allow me to be winning £2k per month right now, if I was trading well enough. I’ll get there though, because I won’t give up until I do.

PS: I work quite hard producing this blog so I’d appreciate it if you could share it on Twitter etc so I can grow the number of visitors I get.

Anyway happy new year everyone. Thanks to everyone who has taken the trouble to read my blog throughout 2020, and GL with your trading.

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