Tough Decisions. My December Update

Well this is tough, but I’ve made a decision on how I’m going to trade for the foreseeable future.

For the benefit of people who read all my trading updates I don’t want to go into too much detail on my past trading history but in brief:

Re-Cap: I work from home so I’m able to trade about 600+ races a month as I can fit work around my trading. I started trading Jan 2019 trying to scalp pre-race. I lost lots of money. I switched to In-Running from April 26^th after buying Tony Hargreaves (TH) In-Running guide*.

I immediately liked In-Running (IR) trading much better, but I still lost. The only positive being that I lost progressively lost less and less each month as I improved up till October when I only lost £56.

The phrase “I only lost £56” reminds me of the days when I was married. The wife would come home from shopping and say something like, “I saved £60 because they were reduced from £100 to £40”. No, you haven’t saved anything, you’ve spent £40!

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I deleted a lot of the old content from this post on 1st Feb 2023 as I talk about another trading method that I tried. I also deleted some of my thoughts because they were downright embarrassing to read. I can’t believe how terrible a trader I was!

December 2019

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Dec 2019 Trading results day by day

1^st Dec

Day off from trading as I’d made day 2 of a decent sized poker tournament. As often happens I got all my chips in when I was an 82% favourite but I still lost to bust just outside the money. (They don’t call me “Run Like a Drain” for nothing).

Dec 2^nd

Excited to start the new month with renewed enthusiasm. It’s always nice to re-set the clock after a month where you have spent most of it in the red. I always think this will be my month! Even though I started trading in Jan 2019 and haven’t managed to make a profit yet.

Day went well there was boringly only one afternoon meeting so I was extra cautious as one mistake could easily spoil the day. Traded fine and only had one small loss.

Number of Races 7

7 Traded, 1 loss, 6 wins. Biggest loss £1.10, biggest win £4.06

Daily Total: Plus £11.84

Dec 3^rd

Weird day. I was a bit up and down but what pleased me was on another day I might have lost my cool, but I didn’t today which has to be a positive. Losing £20 early in the day did put me under a bit of pressure but I didn’t let it affect me. I entered a few trades where I shouldn’t have got involved and the £20 loss was the worst example of that. Even though it was a red day overall I lost less than I won yesterday, so I stay in the green for the month so far.

Number of Races 19

18 Traded, 5 losses, 13 wins. Biggest loss £19.70, biggest win £3.71

Daily Total: Minus – £6.42

Dec 4^th

Very bad day for me. Markets didn’t show too much that was obvious and often when I entered the market my position instantly went red on me. Ludlow was cancelled and that didn’t help matters as only one jumps and an AW flat meeting to trade. This HFP strategy is much better over jumps, the flat races can be a bit rapid and the ladders go a bit crazy making it tough to trade. That said my two biggest wins today were on a flat race.

The only real positive I can take from the day was that I stayed calm and did not revert to my old B2L method.

Number of Races 13

10 Traded, 6 losses, 4 wins. Biggest loss £15.00, biggest win £9.14

Daily Total: Minus – £24.32

Dec 5^th, 6^th and 7^th

I was so hacked off after 5th and 6th that I didn’t write my daily review I just switched the PC off and left the office. For these 3 days my total losses were £230.46 and I’m beginning to question whether I should just admit defeat with trading and just stop doing it.

I was confident at the beginning of the month that I couldn’t lose more than I did last month but it seems that I can easily do so. I’m not entirely sure how it has all gone so wrong, but I feel like a football team in the relegation zone. I may start off each day OK but when I go a goal down my lack of belief means certain defeat.

Number of Races over the 3 days, 79

76 Traded, Biggest loss £77.99, biggest win £5.97

Dec 8^th (Sunday)

I planned to have a day doing my old method for a change. A change is as good as a rest and it can’t be any worse was my thinking. I thought I’d just have a go with very small stakes and take it steady.

Number of Races 27

27 Traded, 6 losses, 21 wins, Biggest loss £9.32, biggest win £6.77

Daily Total: Plus £5.49

Dec 9^th (Mon)

Decided to go back to my old strategy full on today as I’d either got to top up my bank, again, or win a bit today. I decided I’d try and win some and with just one jumps and one flat meeting I figured L2B would offer me the best opportunity.

Day was very straightforward thankfully. No losses which is always nice when it happens.

Number of Races 11

10 Traded, 0 losses, 10 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £3.58

Daily Total: Plus £21.59

Dec 10^th

Annoying day using old method. Suffered a couple of larger losses and worked hard to get the minus figure back down to manageable levels.

Number of Races 21

19 Traded, 4 losses, 15 wins, Biggest loss £27.22, biggest win £6.86

Daily Total: Minus – £8.09

Dec 11^th

Good days trading with just a couple of minor losses.

Number of Races 18

18 Traded, 2 losses, 16 wins, Biggest loss £0.35, biggest win £6.33

Daily Total: Plus £40.42

Dec 12^th

What I describe as a good bad day. By that I mean that it felt like a bad day as I didn’t do any really good trades all day. Somehow though I still made money.

Number of Races 14

14 Traded, 4 losses, 10 wins, Biggest loss £2.14, biggest win £3.87

Daily Total: Plus £11.27

Dec 13^th

What a day. Had one massive brain fart that cost me £52.59 otherwise it was a good day!

Number of Races 21

20 Traded, 5 losses, 15 wins, Biggest loss £52.59, biggest win £8.72

Daily Total: Minus – £4.37

Dec 14^th

Nearly! I’ve never yet had a day where I’ve made £50 profit and in truth, I’ve only ever won over £40 a couple of times. I really thought I was going to do it today. After an £11.05 loss on the 5^th race of the day I had a great run until I lost £9.31 on the 15.20 pm.

Still this is my 2^nd best days trading ever.

Number of Races 30

29 Traded, 5 losses, 24 wins, Biggest loss £11.05, biggest win £6.49

Daily Total: Plus £43.10

Dec 15^th 

Had Sunday dinner with family so only traded 5 races. One very good trade for £6.95 otherwise steady stuff.

Number of Races 5

5 Traded, 1 loss, 4 wins, Biggest loss £1.25, biggest win £6.95

Daily Total: Plus £10.58

Dec 16^th

My last day of trading until after Xmas. It went well and over the last 7 days I’ve boosted my bankroll by just over £140 which was much needed. It leaves me just £100.93 in the red for December.

Number of Races 12

12 Traded, 0 losses, 12 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £4.85

Daily Total: Plus £28.44

26^th December Boxing Day

Had a great 10 days in Spain spent at my Dad’s house. It was just the 2 of us to start with but my daughter joined us when she broke up from work.

Had a nice long break from trading and arrived back in the UK and dived straight back into it the minute I got home!

Good solid day. I decided to carry on with my old method as I figured it would be easier after a lay off and I felt a little tired from travelling back from Spain. As it happened during one of the races today, I spotted a golden HFP opportunity and took a bit of profit out of it.

I’m very close to breaking even this month so I’d like to achieve that and then start again in Feb.

Number of Races 9

9 Traded, 1 loss, 8 wins, Biggest loss £1.74, biggest win £5.35

Daily Total: Plus £17.61

27^th Dec

First losing day for a while. What pleased me (although I don’t like losing of course) was I had an absolute nightmare of a race losing £80 on a really bad mistake, but I remained totally cool about it and carried on trading normally.

In the past I’d have ended up £200 down on the day because I’d have lost my mind.

Number of Races 24

24 Traded, 5 losses, 19 wins, Biggest loss £80.57, biggest win £8.33

Daily Total: Minus -£23.39

28^th Dec (Saturday)

A record-breaking day for me with my best day so far since I started trading in Jan 2019. I must say having Racing TV has made a big difference since I got it. Great pictures on my TV and on a busy day like this the races just flow one after the other and I don’t need to get into a flap getting scratch trades through and all that hassle.

I had a fairly high proportion of losses today but that was because I was being ultra-cautious and taking small/medium reds rather than letting them run and possibly taking a big red.

Number of Races 34

34 Traded, 8 losses, 26 wins, Biggest loss £7.46, biggest win £12.10

Daily Total: Plus £55.45

29^th Dec

Missed the first few races as I had to pick one of my daughters up from the airport but a decent day with just one annoying balls-up which cost me a £20 loss. The mess I made of that trade and the mini-panic I got into trying to sort it out was something I used to do 4 or 5 times a day.

I only realised while writing todays update that I haven’t done this “mini-panic” thing for quite a few months. It’s still annoying to do it but it happens a lot less often these days and it doesn’t bother me so much as it used to. That’s a big improvement.

I traded over 20 races today, so the £20 loss only equates to £1 per race so it doesn’t seem so much when I think of it that way.

Number of Races 23

23 Traded, 2 losses, 21 wins, Biggest loss £20.25, biggest win £6.33

Daily Total: Plus £29.53

30^th Dec (Monday)

Only 3 meetings, two over jumps and both on Racing TV so that was where I concentrated. The AW flat at Lingfield was only available via Betfair video so I only did a couple of races there.

As my confidence with my old method of trading has started to rise it has meant that today I raised my stakes just a little. Averaged £2.33 per race profit which is very good for me.

Number of Races 16

15 Traded, 2 losses, 13 wins, Biggest loss £8.26, biggest win £7.21

Daily Total: Plus £37.43

Dec 31^st Tuesday

What a great way to finish the year with my most profitable day ever. I feel I’ve gotten so much better at my old In-Running method this month.

Four meetings today two on RTV and two via Betfair video. I can’t tell you how much more I like the RTV pictures. I wonder how I ever managed without it previously.

Number of Races 19

19 Traded, 1 loss, 18 wins, Biggest loss £2.88, biggest win £8.00

Daily Total: Plus £61.09

Summary of the month

So after initially thinking on the 7^th Dec that I’d switch back to my old method temporally was wresting with the decision of should I continue with my old TH method or switch back to the HFP method?

When I first switched back to TH way on the 8^th Dec, as I said earlier it was only supposed to be for a short period of time. However, I’ve done well comparatively speaking, so I’ve been wrestling with that decision for a while. 

At the time of writing this (4^th Jan) I’m over £250 up for the last 7 days. If you multiply that by 4 it must be possible that I could make a bag of sand for the month. To win £1,000 in a month after the kicking I’ve taken mentally and financially for the last twelve months would be nice.

I feel I’ve taken the easy option by not carrying on the hard work required to master the HFP method and that disappoints me, but each day I start trading now I fully expect to show a profit.

The fact is that all the hard work I put into the TH method since April has started to come to fruition, I just wish it had done it about 3 months ago as it would have saved me all this malarkey.

Are you a losing trader right now?

If you’re a losing trader, then I guarantee you that there is no trading e-book or training course in the world that if you buy/attend will mean you immediately become profitable. Trading/Training/learning doesn’t work like that.

I was a professional management and staff trainer for the insurance and banking industry for well over 20 years so I can tell you that I never taught anyone a new skill on a training course in that 20 years.

What I did was show and explain to them the best techniques. Technique only becomes a skill if you choose to practise it over and over repeatedly once you’ve left the training course.

We’ve all heard the great Gary Player quote when he chipped into the hole from a greenside bunker (players didn’t do it very often in his day). As he walked out of the sand trap a woman on the rail said “jammy bugger” or words to that effect. Player heard it and replied “yeah…its funny but the harder I practise the luckier I get”

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2020 Dreams and Goals

So, I finally made a profit trading in my 12^th month after 11 straight losses. YAY!!!

I’ve posted up some screenshots on Twitter lately, and people have asked me how I did it? Sometimes it makes me smile, as how could I possibly tell them in a tweet how to instantly become profitable!

Well I can’t, but I can tell you how I finally made a profit. I worked my bollocks off for the previous 12 months, that’s how I did it. I can’t tell you how many race replays I’ve watched but I’m guessing not too many people have watched more.

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