My August update on my trading journey.
I was going to entitle this post “That difficult second album” as after a successful month last month (Read July’s update here) I was feeling a bit under pressure at the start of the month to maintain my progress and improve still further this month.
As the month got underway, I quickly forgot about that and just carried on as I was before.
The great thing about doing % of bank is as you win (even small amounts) the bank and your sakes just steadily grow over time so you never need to worry about increasing stakes. It just takes care of itself. If you are losing it also saves you from yourself as it reduces your stakes as you go along also.
No months trading will ever be perfect, you can always improve, but with just one Red day in August I feel this month was about as good as I can expect currently.
Cutting out those Red days is the key for me, but it takes tons of agonizing discipline not to enter the market.
The Numbers for August
Another good month that I felt was a big step forward for me mentally.
My starting bank should have been £628.50 (see August 2nd where I finally sort that out) and my finishing bank is £866.52 so I have increased it by 37% after 26% last month.
The most pleasing number should be that I only had one Red day but the thing that I know is the stand out number(s) is the 3 days where I watched the races but didn’t have one single trade on those days.
Warren Buttfet, who has a long list of great stock market trading quotes to his name, once said. “The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient”?”
Doing nothing is the hardest thing to master when it comes to In-Running (IR) trading. I’m not 100% there yet but I’m really starting to get to grips with it.
Since joining Back for Profit (Read my Review Here) I fairly quickly learnt what I was supposed to be doing/not doing. Its pretty easy to learn that bit. The really hard part though, is the discipline.
It’s just agonising sometimes to take your hand off the mouse and say, “No, I’m gonna to wait for a better opportunity”.
Below is my report for each individual day and under that is my summary for the month and my thoughts for moving forward.
Having reviewed all the days before posting this I think the first of the month was definitely my worst performance of the whole month.
August 1st
Starting Bank £626.50
Poor day really. I wasn’t totally ill disciplined, but I was trading a little fast and loose if I’m honest. My big loss I will have to watch the replay tomorrow to see what the hell happened as I got in a right mess with it. At one point I wasn’t sure if I wanted the horse I’d traded to win or lose!
Anyway, worked hard to get myself out of the hole I’d dug and ended with a decent day results wise. In amongst the day’s carnage I actually traded a couple of races very well if I say so myself.
Need to do better with discipline though.
Number of Races 16
Traded 10, 2 losses, 8 wins, Biggest loss £10.39, biggest win £6.77
Daily Total Plus £13.21
Bank £639.71
August 2nd
That £2 straight punt I had on the USA VP nomination was starting to annoy me as it throws my figures out, so I bet another £8 on it so I could deposit £10 to put it right.
Starting Bank 639.71 – £8 + £10 = £641.71
Anyway, good steady day today nothing exciting.
Number of Races 6
Traded 4, 0 losses, 4 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £2.16
Daily Total Plus £6.61
Bank £648.32
August 3rd
Starting Bank £648.32
5 meetings is busy for a Monday, 4 of them through the afternoon of which 3 are on RTV so that gives me plenty to go at without running the risk of the Betfair (BF) video problems.
Number of Races 9
Traded 3, 0 losses, 3 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £3.17
Daily Total Plus £6.05
Bank £654.37
August 4th
Starting Bank £654.37
Poor day racing wise but I got a few steady trades out of it. BF pictures were poor today which was a shame as I like Southwell jumps.
Number of Races 10
Traded 5, 0 losses, 5 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £3.35
Daily Total Plus £11.43
Bank £665.80
August 5th
Starting Bank £665.80
Difficult to see what was happening in some of the races. Wexford on RTV had such bad weather it was difficult to see the pictures and Newton Abbot where the weather was better, I had to watch on BF video which was poor today. (Like most days lately)
So after a few small trades I was happy to switch off and call it a day.
Number of Races 6
Traded 3, 0 losses, 3 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £2.20
Daily Total Plus £5.41
Bank £671.21
August 6th
Starting Bank £671.21
Scratchy sort of day nothing really good as I was a bit slow to act on a good one at Bath but the deadline for the website I’m currently building is fast approaching so I was happy to do a couple and switch off Bet Angel (BA).
Number of Races 9
Traded 2, 0 losses, 2 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £2.70
Daily Total Plus £4.19
Bank £675.40
August 7th
Starting Bank £675.40
The last time I spoke to Andrew we discussed overconfidence amongst other things. Pity I didn’t apply that lesson today. Assuming it would be easy trading Cartmel (normally a very good track for IR traders) and taking an early position on a horse was the cause of 1st bad Red I’ve had for a while. I had another small red but that wasn’t a bad trade just took the small red for safety reasons.
Lost £17.83 on the bad one so saved some of my liability, but it was still a very poor trade. Because of that I stayed and traded a few more races than I would have done if I’d been in the green for the day. The weather was really hot so eventually I saw sense and switched off BA and went and had a beer in the garden.
Number of Races 14
Traded 7, 2 losses, 5 wins, Biggest loss £17.83, biggest win £4.79
Daily Total Minus – £8.51
Bank £666.89
August 8th
Starting Bank £666.89
Back to winning ways though not the best of days. No really obvious trades that I’d have felt confident putting double or treble stakes on, but I got 3 very small greens.
Number of Races 10
Traded 3, 0 losses, 3 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £2.12
Daily Total Plus £4.65
Bank £671.54
August 9th
Starting Bank £671.54
Lots of meetings and races but just the two safe trades today. Happy with this type of day. My bank was not in danger at any time and totally stress-free couple of trades.
Number of Races 8
Traded 2, 0 losses, 2 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £6.82
Daily Total Plus £8.84
Bank £680.38
August 10th
Starting Bank £680.38
Quick easy day today. Could have made a really good trade on the first race but I got nervous due to the ladder activity. There are methods of trading IR that rely heavily on the weight of money on the ladders for 80% of their decisions and only 20% on actually watching the race.
In the first race the horse I laid was not running well and didn’t look comfortable for large parts of the race. It was some way back and its 2 main market rivals were not only in front of it but looked to be travelling much better. Yet regardless of that the price of the Fav refused to drift and actually shortened after I’d laid it.
I got so nervous I took a small red on it because there were chunks of money backing it on the ladders. I sometimes wonder what these people are watching when they back horses IR. Some of the large lumps must be from pissed up gambling addicts with more money than sense.
Eventually I grew a pair and backed my judgement by laying it again.
Ended up with a £2.42 green and in fairness to the Fav it did stay on to finish 2nd but I was out before it ran on.
My bigger win was a slightly naughty one as the race make-up wasn’t within the margin for my strict criteria. I watched the race and was determined to be ultra-cautious due to the make-up and only trade if it was an obvious trade.
As it happened Tidal Wave ran with its arse hanging out and looked like an “Also Ran” right from the start so got a nice easy trade. I’d greened up before they were halfway.
Number of Races 5
Traded 3, 0 losses, 3 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £7.15
Daily Total Plus £12.27
Bank £692.65
August 11th
Starting Bank £692.65
Took the easy option today. Switched BA on for the afternoon/evening races at Perth. Traded the first race, made £6 and switched BA straight off. It was 32c today outside and my desk is right by the window and it gets unbearable in my “office” (back bedroom) on days like this.
Number of Races 1
Traded 1, 0 losses, 1 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £6.03
Daily Total Plus £6.03
Bank £698.68
August 12th
Starting Bank £698.68
A day to test the patience today. There were some races that had the right make-up but they didn’t offer a safe trade for me. Andrew did a couple but by his own admission they were using advanced techniques.
I watched half a dozen races in the afternoon then came back and watched 3 evening races at Wolves but did not do a single trade.
So 0/0 today and bank fully intact and it will all still be there tomorrow. There is something like 25,000 races per year so if today I didn’t trade that’s fine.
In the past days like today are the ones where I may well have lost a large % of my bank. This is only the second time I’ve ever switched on BA to trade but not actually done a trade.
I take today as a big plus for my development.
Number of Races 9
Traded 0, 0 losses, 0 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win N/A
Daily Total Zero
Bank £698.68
August 13th
Starting Bank £698.68
Chalk and cheese from yesterday. Lots of great opportunities today. Started late and the others in the Telegram room had already had some really good trades by the time I started. Any worries I might have had that I’d missed all the good stuff quickly evaporated.
I was actually sad to switch off BA as there were still some good races to come at Tramore but banking the green and switching off always puts a smile on my face.
Number of Races 12
Traded 4, 0 losses, 4 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £6.73
Daily Total Plus £14.53
Bank £713.21
August 14th
Starting Bank £713.21
OK day made one ill-disciplined trade that cost me £6.79 but otherwise I did OK. It has been a while since I made a genuinely poor decision. At least I managed to extradite myself from it with only a 20% of liability loss.
Number of Races 14
Traded 4, 1 loss, 3 wins, Biggest loss £6.79, biggest win £7.42
Daily Total Plus £8.29
Bank £721.50
August 15th
Starting Bank £721.50
I dodged the early races and switched BA on later as Tramore was on late afternoon. Normally its jumps but today it was flat racing but they don’t use stalls which is fun. I think 1m4f is the shortest trip but even so you can sometimes get free money if they start and one is facing the wrong way!
Got a couple of decent trades so happy with that.
Number of Races 4
Traded 2, 0 losses, 2 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £5.44
Daily Total Plus £9.40
Bank £730.90
August 16th
Starting Bank £730.90
Best day of the month so far. Market Rasen and Tramore jumps so I was hopeful for good things but often when you think it will be a good day it turns sour.
Today though it was good.
Number of Races 14
Traded 4, 0 losses, 4 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £9.77
Daily Total Plus £19.37
Bank £750.27
August 17th
Starting Bank £750.27
“After the Lord mayors show”. I was hoping for a better day with Uttoxeter and Tipperary jumps but just two small trades today. The first one was actually a great opportunity as Calidus Mirabilis the odds-on Fav ran very poorly. I was very slow to get in entry wise and missed a great price where I could have won a sizeable amount.
Punters who backed it would’ve been furious as it ran like a drain.
Possibly as it was the first race of the day I was not really in tune with things and maybe that explains why I was slow to act.
Not much even worth watching in the later races so I called it a day as I had stuff to do for my day job.
Number of Races 3
Traded 2, 0 losses, 2 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £3.98
Daily Total Plus £4.83
Bank £755.10
August 18th
Starting Bank £755.10
Fontwell jumps is a great track for IR traders but the BF pictures are just total shite currently. Trading IR is tricky enough when you are learning but to do it off unreliable pictures is just crazy.
Got a couple of small trades in and called it a day.
Number of Races 4
Traded 2, 0 losses, 2 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £3.65
Daily Total Plus £6.25
Bank £761.35
August 19th
Starting Bank £761.35
Nice steady day today, just two trades but very safe. Sligo and Stratford jumps made my task easier.
Number of Races 11
Traded 2, 0 losses, 2 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £7.41
Daily Total Plus £12.31
Bank £773.66
August 20th
Starting Bank £773.66
My VP bet got paid out, so I withdrew the £12.16 it boosted my account by to keep the figures balanced.
Started trading later in the day so I could concentrate on Killarney jumps meeting. (4.15 start)
It couldn’t have gone much better as the first race offered an opportunity on the odds-on fav for a L2B. The horse ultimately went on to win the race but with B4P we don’t need them to lose, we just want spots where we can see the price will almost certainly drift.
The horse was trading between 1.5 and 1.7 IR but didn’t look to be going well enough to justify that price. So, I took an early position and got matched at 2.16 as it started to slowly drift.
I was primed and ready to trade out for a small red if it started to improve.
Fortunately though, not long after I’d laid it, he clumped a hurdle the price shot out and got my back bets matched instantly. (at an average of 3.30)
Number of Races 1
Traded 1, 0 losses, 1 win, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £25.57
Daily Total Plus £25.57
Bank £799.23
August 21st
Starting Bank £799.23
Wow, great day yesterday and had an almost carbon copy today. Did real work early afternoon instead of trading and switched BA on just in time for the first jumps race of the day at Newton Abbot.
Got a decent trade in on it and switched BA straight off again.
Number of Races 1
Traded 1, 0 losses, 1 win, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £10.67
Daily Total Plus £10.67
Bank £809.90
August 22nd
Starting Bank £809.90
After two days of getting a great trade on the very first race I looked at I got a bit excited on the first race at Uttoxeter today and entered a trade that wasn’t safe. I was sort of right as it (Miss Farage) wasn’t going all that well and its market rival (Bit on the Side) was in front going nicely but as the horse I laid was in 2nd with no other protection for me if the leader fell I realised it wasn’t a great trade and bailed early on it.
I was in the green so was able to take a small profit and ultimately I was right as it didn’t win but if I’d stayed in and got a full green it still wouldn’t have been a good trade. I bailed as I knew there would be easier ones than that.
I was right as in the very next race, a Juvenile hurdle (which IR trader doesn’t love a Juvenile hurdle?) the favourite ran like a drain and I got the simplest/safest of trades.
If it was on RTV rather than the Betfair video I’m convinced I would have won double what I did as the video stream from BF is total shite and it reduced my confidence. To be honest it ran so badly, and the price held up inexplicably high that I’d have been better off trading it off Sky TV 6 seconds behind!
Overall very pleased with the day and how well the month is going. I must be doing well as when Andrew rang me after trading, he only gave me a mild bollocking for the first trade.
Number of Races 2
Traded 2, 0 losses, 2 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £11.13
Daily Total Plus £12.97
Bank £822.87
August 23rd
Starting Bank £822.87
Not a bad day in truth but after the last few days I’ve had it didn’t seem that good. I guess that shows how I’m progressing when I increase my bank by about 0.8% on the day and feel a bit disappointed!
Watched a fair few races, not too many matched the criteria and only got 2 small trades out of the day.
Number of Races 6
Traded 2, 0 losses, 2 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £3.41
Daily Total Plus £6.37
Bank £829.24
August 24th
Starting Bank £829.24
A no trade day. Different to a day off because I was actively looking to trade but did not see any safe opportunities in the races I watched. I switched BA on prior to the 1.00 pm and switched it off after the 2.30 pm as I had to go out.
When I look at my excel spreadsheet and scan through it, I don’t even notice a “zero” anymore. I only look for the Reds. This was the type of day where in the past I could easily have had a big bad red.
People get in touch with me via twitter and my blog who want to discuss my new style of trading which I’m always happy to do. I enjoy chatting to other traders on Zoom but when I try to explain days like this to them, they seem to have real difficulty understanding it.
“What you sometimes just watch the races but don’t trade any of them?” It’s such an alien concept to them. It certainly was to me as well, before I joined B4P.
Days when I wasn’t sure about a trade and just went into “Click & Hope” mode were the reason why I was a consistent loser.
If you look at my Excel spreadsheet for March 2020 where I lost £39.04 over the month. On just three bad days I lost £159.16 (21st) and £80.39 (30th) and £73.92 (10th). That’s £313 lost trading on days where I would have been better off, keeping my powder dry.
It has happened in months since (though thankfully to a lesser degree) that one or two bad days ruin a lot of hard work.
So looking at today and seeing it as a big fat zero may be a negative to most people, but I know its these days that have made the biggest single difference to my P&L.
Since the 31st July I have had 3 of these “Zero” days and if you look you’ll see I’ve had just one red in that time. Losing traders don’t lose overall because they don’t win enough on days when they win, its because they lose too much on days when they lose.
I’m trying with B4P’s help to try and eliminate those losing days.
Number of Races 8
Traded 0, 0 losses, 0 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win N/A
Daily Total Plus/Minus = Zero (0)
Bank £829.24
August 25th
Starting Bank £829.24
Quick in and out today. First race no trade second race get a nice easy one when Mistree Song looks uninterested during the early stages and drifts in price quite a bit. I was out way before the business end of the race when it woke up and started to take it seriously.
The 18/1 winner though never looked like it would be caught after getting a cheap early lead and running/jumping well the whole way.
Number of Races 2
Traded 1, 0 losses, 1 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £8.46
Daily Total Plus £8.46
Bank £837.70
August 26th
A rare day off from trading. Had to take my oldest daughter to pick up her new car and after I’d done that I went shopping. I’ve been trying to go for a walk every day since not long after lockdown started and I’ve lost quite a lot of weight.
Recently I’ve not been able to go every day because the rain has been pretty heavy, so I treated myself to new waterproof jacket and trousers. No excuses now!
August 27th
Starting Bank £837.70
BF Video still shite but managed to get a couple of trades. I wonder how much less money gets traded IR when the race isn’t on RTV?
Number of Races 9
Traded 2, 0 losses, 2 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £4.60
Daily Total Plus £7.16
Bank £844.86
August 28th
Starting Bank £844.86
Very frustrating day. Started watching right from the first race at 12.00 pm at Fontwell. Betfair video untradable. Stopping/starting/freezing just total shite.
I had to take out all the Fontwell races from Guardian* as it was too risky to trade them.
I sent Betfair Customer services a tweet in sheer temper as I was annoyed that I knew I couldn’t trade them. Waste of time sending it to them I know that, they must have had hundreds of complaints and they never do F all about it.
No races to trade for a while and when some fitted the criteria there was no safe trade for me. Then I had about 6 or 7 phone calls in the space of an hour and a half. All but one was work related so I had no choice but to take them.
Once that was out the way I started watching again but didn’t get anything obvious in the first 5 or 6 races I watched after my enforced break and I could feel myself getting annoyed so I wisely switched BA off.
*Guardian is a BA feature and allows you to pre-select which races you want to look at and delete out the others.
Number of Races 16
Traded 0, 0 losses, 0 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win N/A
Daily Total Plus/Minus = Zero (0)
Bank £844.86
August 29th
Starting Bank £844.86
Again patience tested to the limit. Poor day with lots of races having make ups outside my parameters and no obvious opportunities presenting themselves on the ones that were suitable.
I watched 7 races with no trade but on the 8th race, one I’d normally be wary of (4 runners) I got a safe trade on Cabaletta in the 15.00 @ Goodwood. It gave the Fav a cheap lead and was never able to reel it in. I entered as they crossed the intersection when it was the first one off the bridle. If you watch it, you can see as the camera angle changes the jockey is throwing everything at it, to no effect.
Number of Races 8
Traded 1, 0 losses, 1 win, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £4.67
Daily Total Plus £4.67
Bank £849.53
August 30th
Starting Bank £849.53
OK day, with a couple of early trades and a quick finish. Switched off early so I could do some work on a client’s website. Desperately trying to get it finished now as I have 2 other projects I need to get on with.
Number of Races 4
Traded 2, 0 losses, 2 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £5.80
Daily Total Plus £9.26
Bank £858.79
August 31st
Starting Bank £858.79
Ha ha. Andrew at B4P would have had to take a blood pressure tablet if I F’d the month up at this late stage. I’ve been relaxed about my trading all month, but I did feel a little nervous today so when I got and OK trade on Summer Power in the 12.45 @ Ripon I snap switched off BA.
If this had been a normal day of the month, I’d certainly have watched a couple of races at Downpatrick to see if I could get another one but banking a green and switching off is never the worst option.
Number of Races 1
Traded 1, 0 losses, 1 win, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £7.73
Daily Total Plus £7.73
Bank £866.52
Summary
So after a virtual scratch month in June and green in July and August I can see I’m making steady progress but until I can go 6 months green I won’t be hanging out the bunting.
Since the re-start of UK racing in June and using the 5% of Bank as my Liability setting it has been a help.
In July I increased my bank from £497.20 to £628.50 (£131.30) and in August I’ve gone from £628.50 to £866.52 (£230.29).
So a 26% increase in bank in July and a 37% one in August.
My target when I switched to a 5% of bank was to increase my bank each month by 20%, which would mean doubling my bank in 4 months. See an example 20% compound interest calculation below.
But if you look at the excel sheet with my actual figures in it you’ll see I’ll be doing it in 3 months if I keep this up.
Moving Forward
So far I’m loving B4P. The process seems so simple once you’ve learned it. The hardest thing to do without any doubt is to do nothing. I’ve had 3 days in August where I didn’t trade a single race because none of the races offered an opportunity that matched the B4P criteria and what I’m looking for in a race.
I know 100% that in the past I’d have traded 10-20 races per day on those days and probably done my plums.
B4P is a method/way of trading but most of all its about discipline. That’s the hard bit.
I get asked a lot of Q’s on Twitter and via this blog and most people seem impatient to get to the big stakes early on and ask “is it scalable?”
Well it is scalable I could easily be trading with a liability 10 x what it currently is but I still have the stabilizers on my bike so there is no rush.
What you have to appreciate is, if you can’t use the B4P method and make money with a £100 bank/£5 liability, then why would you be able to do it with a £5,000 bank/£250 liability?
Everyone wants to dive in head first but using real money when you start off is stupid. Andrew always suggests new members should use “Play Money” in BA till they have 20 consecutive Greens before switching to real money and even then you should be using VERY small stakes.
It is not the size of the money amount but the strike rate that is important. Once your strike rate is really high, then you can scale up. I’m trying to master the process after that the money will take care of itself.
One of the other relatively new guys in the room has had just one red race in August I believe. Not one Red day, just one Red race in the whole month. I don’t know what stakes he uses but it doesn’t matter if his stakes are 50p, that is very impressive trading.
Don’t look at my figures for the month and see just £238 profit. What you should see is I’ve traded just 77 races with 72 Greens and 5 Reds. My last red was on the 14th of the month.
I’m not where I want to be yet and although I shouldn’t I’m human so I will surely make mistakes going forward.
I can see light at the end of the tunnel though and I can be confident it won’t be too long before I’m making enough through trading to class it as a nice additional P/T income.
If I can go six months consecutive green then it should really be up to me what I can ultimately achieve.
