One Swallow July Trading Update
Betfair Trading,  In-Running

One Swallow

July Update: My Betfair (BF) trading update for July 2020.

This is the most positive update I’ve had yet. I feel sure I’ve taken a good step forward this month, but I know that one profitable month doesn’t make me a winning trader. I can’t be certain that losing months are behind me, but if I can maintain this method/mindset of trading then there is no reason why they wouldn’t be.

June was a weird month in many ways (Read June Update Here) but July has been much better for trading In-Running (IR) I feel.

July though has thrown up a lot more opportunities for easy trades. We are getting regular summer jumps meetings and that has been great for me.

So better races combined with the fact that my mentality has been much better this month as I’ve stayed focused while trading. Not much chance of me forgetting though with Andrew at “Back for Profit” hammering the message home to me every time we discuss my trading.

I’m also totally convinced that the method of staking I’m using now is really helping me. I’m using liability not stakes but I’ve done that for a while. What is relatively new for me is I’ve set my liability to a percentage of my BF bank. This has some BIG advantages but I won’t go into detail here though I may do a separate post soon to cover this.

The Numbers for July

July Betfair Exchange Trading Update

Below is my report for each individual day and under that is my summary for the month and my thoughts for moving forward.

July 1st

Starting Bank £497.20

Today was like the whole of June condensed into one day. Though fortunately I didn’t run out of races. I made myself trade some of the later races as punishment for a bad trade earlier on. I had two losses today and the first one was fine. I took a position early on during a jumps race on a short-priced Fav who was looking decidedly un-interested at the back of the field.

The race was 3 miles long so entering early meant I’d have an awfully long time to change my mind and trade out. Ultimately, I traded out for a 64p loss (I was in the green for quite a while and could just as easily have had a 64p green) but on another day it could have been a great trade.

I felt in control of it the whole time and I was happy with the trade overall.

In the next race I made a complete mess of it though. The situation wasn’t the same and I should never have entered the trade at all. Once it started to go wrong I clicked the “close” button on the One-Click screen but didn’t click the “close all” button to lock in a small Red.

If I had then it would have been a £1.80 – £2 loss, it went on to win so I lost £7.63. Terrible entry, terrible exit and put me in a world of pain.

There is a fine line between proactive/aggressive trading (first loss) and reckless button clicking. (second loss)

Anyway, from then on, I went into “two nil down mode” * and ground out a small green for the day.

*If you read Junes blog update, you’ll know what this is in reference to.

Number of Races 22

Traded 8, 2 losses, 6 wins, Biggest loss £7.63, biggest win £2.64

Daily Total Plus £0.91

Bank £498.11

Betfair Trading

July 2nd

Starting Bank £498.11

I wrote this pre-racing today.

Having a bit more time to reflect on yesterday I realise A) how daft/unnecessary that trade was and B) how fortunate I was to get back into the green for the day. Mentally it would have been a body blow to start off the month with a red and it may well have had a knock-on effect for today and further forward.

I feel like an opening batsman who gets dropped in the slips during the first over. I now need to make the most of that bit of luck and knuckle down.

Post-Racing review

This is the sort of day that Back for Profit is designed for. Obviously, it doesn’t always work out quite like this but today three easy trades came along like buses and I was done for the day!

I started trading on the 14.40 and my third and final trade was at 15.20.

Number of Races 3

Traded 3, 0 losses, 3 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £2.38

Daily Total Plus £6.49

Bank £504.60

Betfair In running

July 3rd

Starting Bank £504.60

Terrible race after terrible race today so it was a much tougher day and one to test patience and discipline. I failed totally.

When one of the best members of B4P Telegram room private messages you about something and in the back and forth says something that makes you think, “yes that is brilliant” I’ll have to try and do that and then you completely ignore/forget it and lose £12 in a trade that was trade I should never have been in.

Number of Races 15

Traded 5, 1 loss, 4 wins, Biggest loss £12.24, biggest win £2.35

Daily Total Minus – £6.44

Bank £498.16

July 4th

Starting Bank £498.16

No great trades but scratched around nicking a pound or two here and there. All added up to a reasonable result on the day, so happy overall.

Number of Races 16

Traded 7, 1 loss, 6 wins, Biggest loss £ 0.49, biggest win £2.66

Daily Total Plus £6.72

Bank £504.88

July 5th

Starting Bank £504.88

Steady day. Almost boring which is exactly the way I like it, no drama at all. Sad to see Enable beaten into 2nd but no disgrace in that as it was her first run of the season.

Number of Races 8

Traded 4, 0 losses, 4 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £2.66

Daily Total Plus £5.41

Bank £510.29

July 6th

Starting Bank £510.29

Meh, bad start spoilt the day and it was a tough throughout with very few decent opportunities. Sat at my PC for quite a long time but wisely gave up and called it a day.

Number of Races 11

Traded 4, 1 loss, 3 wins, Biggest loss £16.31, biggest win £4.20

Daily Total Minus – £8.13

Bank £502.16

July 7th

Starting Bank £502.16

Slightly frustrating day as others in the group were getting trades while I was sitting out. I wanted to concentrate on the jumps rather than the sprints. Today though they didn’t offer much.

One race which summed up the day was a race where the top 3 in the market lined up 3 abreast at the front and stayed there from the tape going back until they were approaching the 2nd last eventually finishing 1st, 2nd and 4th. So, no safe trade possible.

Managed one good small trade and a couple of near misses where I missed the price to get matched for just pennies.

Number of Races 10

Traded 3, 0 losses, 3 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £1.77

Daily Total Plus £2.41

Bank £504.57

July 8th

Starting Bank £504.57

Good day today. With two afternoon jumps meetings both on RTV I had high hopes. Often these days turn out disappointing but not today.

Two losses today but one was for 8p and the worst only £1.06 and I only took that red as I was being ultra-cautious. I had three trades today where I won over £3 and at my liability settings/size of bank is a good return.

Number of Races 14

Traded 6, 2 losses, 4 wins, Biggest loss £1.06, biggest win £3.89

Daily Total Plus £10.38

Bank £514.95

July 9th

Starting Bank £514.95

Boom. That’s the way to do it. One race, one trade and switched BA off.

No jumps today, all flat races and a lot of dead straight tracks so that often means less opportunities. So at the start of the day I didn’t hold out much hope. I knew that if I could get one or two trades out of the day without any reds then it would be a great result.

The first race I traded offered a decent B2L opportunity in a 1-mile race at Navan. I was in before the 4f pole and the price crashed down within a second of me entering which was great.

2/5ths of my exit lay trade got taken so fast but then the price hovered just above where I wanted it. I was still in a large green zone so to be safe I just cancelled the remainder of my lay trade money and just greened out manually.

It meant I won a bit less than I would have done but I watched the price/race after I’d exited and it would have been touch and go whether I’d have got fully matched or not.

I avoided the risk and was out before the 3f pole and the horse eventually finished 3rd.

Number of Races 1

Traded 1, 0 losses, 1 win, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £5.30

Daily Total Plus £5.30

Bank £520.25

Horse race trading

July 10th

Starting Bank £520.25

Another decent day with Market Rasen jumps in the afternoon and another jumps meeting late afternoon- early evening. Though weirdly I did all my trades on the flat today before the later jumps meeting even started.

I try not to trade more than 4 races per day if possible but allowed myself 5 as the first one was a virtual scratch with a 5p green.

I’m loving the % of bank method of staking I’m now using, it took a while to get going but with just 4 consecutive green days it is starting to accumulate already.

Number of Races 8

Traded 5, 0 losses, 5 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £3.66

Daily Total Plus £8.75

Bank £529.00

July 11th

Starting Bank £529.00

With trading, some days you earn and some days you learn. I was lucky to get away with doing both today.

The first race that matched the B4P criteria today was the 12.10 Newm and although I got a small winning trade from it Andrew and other more experienced guys in the Telegram room won more obviously in money but also in % terms than me, because they laid the Fav at a short price. (shorter price bigger stake to liability ratio, so bigger profit)

I questioned the trade in the Telegram room as I was too scared to lay the Fav until it was too late, and the price had shot out.

Andrew posted his entry and exit points and reasons for entering when he did. I re-watched the race a few times and realised he was right. I just hadn’t spotted it.

In the very next race (12.45 Newm) almost the exact same scenario occurred, and I didn’t miss it the second time. I only got the Fav at 4.60 but it was a safe trade that I would have missed without getting that feedback from Andrew and others in the Telegram room.

The days racing looked pretty poor too be honest with no jumps and a couple of meetings on Sky and the BF feed was so far behind you could have got a postcard telling you who has won quicker than the video, so I banked the two small wins and called it a day.

Number of Races 2

Traded 2, 0 losses, 2 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £2.41

Daily Total Plus £4.26

Bank £533.26

July 12th

Starting Bank £533.26

A bit of a scrappy day. A couple of scratched trades one for 0 and one for a 15p Red but otherwise I nicked a couple of scraps here and there.

As the Lingfield BF video kept freezing I didn’t want to risk it so I switched off BA as soon as I’d got a half decent trade on a real straggler at Bangor.

Number of Races 8

Traded 5, 1 loss, 3 wins, Biggest loss £0.15, biggest win £2.42

Daily Total Plus £4.06

Bank £537.32

Betfair in-play

July 13th

Starting Bank £537.32

Quick in and out again today. Just watched 3 jumps races at Rosc. 14.00, 14.30 & 15.00. All three races were interesting in their own way.

In the first race the horse I laid (The Wonky Tonk) was lining up to be prominent but seemed to miss the break slightly so the jockey was urging him along early trying to get back towards the front. I figured he must be using up extra petrol so I took an early position to see if the price would drift.

It did and although it was never that far behind the leaders, I was in at 3.91 and out quickly at 5.83.

After I’d traded out I thought “I should be laying this again” but my BA Servants are set to a max entry price of 12.0 for a lay bet so I couldn’t as by this time it was trading at about 15.0. It looked like it was being pushed along for a large proportion of the race.

Even though I was out of the trade I still watched and amazingly it came through to win. So glad I use the servants on the “One Click” screen and have them set at max 12.0 because the way I used to trade I’d have been laying that at anything up to 20’s and would have blown a BIG hole in my bank with that one.

So the £2.36 win may not look that impressive but it’s a lot prettier than a dirty great Red.

In the 2nd race I had a scratch where I took an early position on one that didn’t materialise into the sort of situation I was hoping for, so I just scratched it.

The third one was a good one to finish on. Nice safe trade on “Chasing Abbey” who finished strongly to claim 2nd spot but I was out of the trade way before the end.

However on these long races with the Fav and 2nd favourite going well up front it is so safe to lay the 3rd fav who is well back and not travelling well at that point.

Number of Races 3

Traded 3, 0 losses, 2 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £3.99

Daily Total Plus £6.35

Bank £543.67

Chasing Abbey

July 14th

Starting Bank £543.67

£2 straight punt on VP Nomination. I wanted to have a go at this and bookies were offering terrible prices so had to use BF. I wish I hadn’t as it has sort of messed my figures up a bit but if it wins it will be worth it. (Slim chance tbh)

VP Presidential Election Exchange Bet

Trading bank £541.67

Bollocks! I nearly took the day off from trading and now I really wish I had. With no afternoon races on RTV I knew I’d be at the mercy of the BF video and it would be slightly risky.

If there hadn’t been jumps at Southwell I would definitely given it a miss.

Anyway once I’d decided to trade the one big mistake was all mine and the reason for my big loss was just greed plain and simple.

Laid “As you Like” @ 5.70 and again @ 7.60 and both got fully matched on the exit side at about 8.6 and 11.5 for a steady green trade.

I got greedy though and when I was fully out, I decided to lay it again @ 12.0 and it came back to win.

I’d taken my eye off its market rivals who at this point were not going well and the only horse that could have saved me was Mr Mafia who fought hard but to no avail.

Full liability loss would have been about £27 and I only managed to salvage about £10 of it.

Really angry but at least had the sense to switch BA off instantly.

Number of Races 2

Traded 2, 2 losses, 0 wins, Biggest loss £17.68, biggest win N/A

Daily Total Minus – £19.23

Bank £522.44

Bad loss

July 15th

Starting Bank £522.44

Steady Eddie today after yesterday’s debacle. Just two trades the 2nd one was very good.

Number of Races 2

Traded 2, 0 losses, 2 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £6.92

Daily Total Plus £7.49

Bank £529.93

July 16th

Starting Bank £529.93

Decent steady day considering the best meeting was on BF video rather than RTV. One scratch trade and one 40p Red didn’t spoil the day profit wise.

A nice B2L for an £8.06 boosted the day up quite a bit.

Number of Races 11

Traded 6, 1 loss, 4 wins, Biggest loss £0.40p, biggest win £8.06

Daily Total Plus £11.29

Bank £541.22

July 17th

Starting Bank £541.22

Did the late shift today. With Kilbreggan jumps starting at 16.45 I decided to have the afternoon off and didn’t switch BA on until 16.30.

Pretty poor day but after yesterday it’s fine.

Number of Races 10

Traded 2, 0 losses, 2 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £2.18

Daily Total Plus £3.11

Bank £544.33

July 18th

Starting Bank £544.33

Mainly concentrated on Tramore jumps races, which is a tight/quirky track. Being in the B4P Telegram group is very good when it comes to tracks like this. Andrew puts a video review off all the tracks each day for us to watch.

You can watch it to get his views on where the best places are to enter/exit trades on both B2L and L2B’s. Also, where not to!

This info can make or save you money, but either way it’s valuable info.

Just two steady trades today

Number of Races 6

Traded 2, 0 losses, 2 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £3.60

Daily Total Plus £5.73

Bank £550.06

July 19th

Starting Bank £550.06

Lots of meetings today watched a few of the longer flat races but mainly concentrated on the 2 jumps meetings at Southwell and Tipperary. Shame Southwell is only available of BF video as it did cause me one or two anxious moments when it froze momentarily, but in the main it was OK.

Good steady day, with 5 greens of consistent amounts and ended up with my best day of the month so far. I’m not really supposed to trade more than 4 races, but I felt good and with some decent jumps racing to trade I thought I’d do an extra one.

I know there may be days with only flat meetings and if they are on BF video only, then I’d be better off not trading them. By banking a bit extra today it would take the pressure off me to trade when I don’t really want to.

I’m really NOT supposed to have targets, but I was hoping to get a £100 green month for July. (Which is a 20% increase of my total bank).

Over the last 5 days I’ve put myself in a position that I can easily achieve that now, assuming I don’t do anything stupid. (There is always that possibility with me)

I’m currently £68.03 ahead for the month.

Number of Races 10

Traded 5, 0 losses, 5 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £3.27

Daily Total Plus £13.17

Bank £563.23

July 20th

Starting Bank £563.23

Sometimes you think its going to be a great day but it doesn’t materialise. 2 jumps meetings in the afternoon, both on RTV but even though I watched the first 6 races before I had to go out. I got just one 60p trade out of them!

The horses I was watching in each race were never off the bridle till it was too near the business end of the race. So just the one trade where the price was so poor, I only got pennies from it. Disappointing, but better than a red day though!

Number of Races 6

Traded 1, 0 losses, 1 win, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £0.60

Daily Total Plus £0.60

Bank £563.83

July 21st

Starting Bank £563.83

Quick easy day today which suited me. Watched the first two races at Stratford got 2 easy trades and switched BA off having banked a winning day.

Number of Races 2

Traded 2, 0 losses, 2 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £3.55

Daily Total Plus £5.41

Bank £569.24

Trading

July 22nd

Starting Bank £569.24

Ballinrobe jumps in the afternoon on RTV and a couple of flat meetings on Sky. So bearing that in mind a decent steady day.

Number of Races 8

Traded 2, 0 losses, 2 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £3.86

Daily Total Plus £5.15

Bank £574.39

July 23rd

Starting Bank £574.39

Uttoxeter is a great track for IR trading but its not on RTV which is a nuisance. Today my internet was playing up a bit as well so when I got a couple of small green trades in, I decided to immediately call it a day to be on the safe side.

As I’m doing so well this month, I didn’t want to make a Horlicks of the day, especially if it’s caused by the live stream going tits up at the wrong moment.

Number of Races 7

Traded 2, 0 losses, 2 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £3.92

Daily Total Plus £4.91

Bank £579.30

July 24th

Starting Bank £579.30

Lazy afternoon and just traded early evening as there were 2 jumps meetings on at that time.

After spending most of the afternoon outside in the sunshine I was happy to switch BA off after a quick 2 greens and call it a day.

Number of Races 4

Traded 2, 0 losses, 2 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £4.31

Daily Total Plus £6.38

Bank £585.68

July 25th

Starting Bank £585.68

My daughter’s birthday today and I started working on a new website for someone. So I didn’t switch BA on until the evening jumps at Tramore.

Trading isn’t about luck but throughout the year you’ll have the odd thing go in your favour or against you when trading IR.

In the past I’ve made some minor errors and been punished heavily for them but today I made a mistake and it worked out really well.

On the 17.15 I missed the pre-race build-up on RTV and when I started watching the race they had just started. I had no idea that the 2nd Fav was a colour change.

The Fav was going well 5 or 6 lengths ahead of the main pack and just had one horse along side it. I couldn’t find the colours of the horse alongside in the ten I could see. (There were 12 runners, but I only have the top 10 on the one-click screen and 3 ladders open).

As I couldn’t see the colours, I assumed it was one of the rank outsiders!

So I thought this Fav is a golden B2L opportunity as I assumed it would be able to breeze past the other horse at will. I placed a B2L and then heard the commentator call the name of the 2nd fav and realised my mistake!

I was just about to trade out when the Fav did in fact get its head in front after a particularly good jump and the price dramatically shortened and my Lay bets got matched.

I got lucky as the 2nd fav came back to win comfortably in the end, with the fav finishing 3rd.

I normally try to watch all the pre-race stuff on RTV as I sometimes pick up stuff worth knowing. Today I just got very lucky.

After that race I thought I won’t push it and switched off BA. Indian takeaway and a beer this evening!

Number of Races 4

Traded 1, 0 losses, 1 win, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £6.90

Daily Total Plus £6.90

Bank £592.58

July 26th

Starting Bank £592.58

Cartmel jumps today which I was looking forward to. Pretty unique track and a good one for IR traders, I think. Plenty of flat meetings today as well.

I traded a 6f race today for the first time in quite a while. Laid the Fav (St Marks Basillica) which had never run before. It broke badly and gave away 6 or 7 lengths right at the start.

It wasted energy pushing along to make it up and midway through the race the 2nd Fav which had 2 previous runs was cruising up front. Fav pushed along before the 2 pole while the 2nd Fav was still on bridle. I normally don’t trade 6f races but that was pretty easy I think.

I was ultra-cautious and only got in when the price was 4.1 but still quite pleased with the trade.

Had to stop early as my daughter cooked Sunday dinner for me. On a positive note today was my 12th consecutive green day. I’ve done 11 consecutive green days twice before, but this is a new record for me so very pleased.

Number of Races 6

Traded 1, 0 losses, 1 win, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £2.88

Daily Total Plus £2.88

Bank £595.46

July 27th

Starting Bank £595.46

Almost a first for me today. I’ve had days before where I haven’t traded because of work or holidays etc and not switched BA on. But I’ve never switched BA on to trade and not placed a single trade, but today I almost did.

Traded from about 12.10 till about 16.00 without a trade and went back on the computer at about 17.30 and my intention was to stop at about 18.30 no matter what.

I finally got a trade in on a beaten Fav (It’s a Given) in the 18.00 at Windsor. I was a bit slow and missed the price so only got matched at 5.0 for a £2.47 green. Not a great trade but I was quite happy with it.

Number of Races 14

Traded 1, 0 losses, 1 win, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £2.47

Daily Total Plus £2.47

Bank £597.93

July 28th

Starting Bank £597.93

The first race I looked at today offered a great trade. I know the big hitters in the Telegram group filled their boots on it. I only entered once on it which in all honesty was a mistake.

It was what they (the big hitters) call a Stevie Wonder trade, meaning it was so obvious a blind man could spot it. When these come along the experienced guys are lumping chunks into the market.

I was probably being a bit too defensive as the month is nearly over and I’m doing so well, but I’d hate to spoil the month at this late stage.

Throughout the rest of the afternoon there wasn’t anything super easy, so I just left them alone.

Number of Races 7

Traded 1, 0 losses, 1 win, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £4.97

Daily Total Plus £4.97

Bank £602.90

July 29th

Starting Bank £602.90

What a day. First race and I’m one and done for the day. My liability is upto about £30 per race now as my bank is circa £600 so to get £18 from a L2B is good going.

The Fav at Bangor ran like a drain and it was odds on pre-off. I got my lay bets matched at an average of 2.2 so I’m pleased to get in that early on a horse that clearly wasn’t travelling well almost from the start.

When I got in I couldn’t believe the price it was and started to worry I’d mis-read it because I could actually have put more money in the market.

This is my best day of the month from just one trade!

Anyway, I’m working on a website for someone so I can switch off now and carry on working. Profit banked.

Number of Races 1

Traded 1, 0 losses, 1 win, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £18.42

Daily Total Plus £18.42

Bank £621.32

Best trade of the month.

30th July

Starting Bank £621.32

Penultimate day of the month so starting to feel the pressure. I’m trying to trade each race on its merits but today I know I was in “park the bus” mode.

I feel like I’m one nil up in injury time and trying to run down the clock on what should now be my best month since I started trading.

Just 2 trades today nothing great, but it was my sixteenth consecutive green day, so pleased with that.

Andrew at B4P rings me every now and then to check to see if I’ve made a balls up and lost loads of money!

Fortunately, with my current staking plan it’s virtually impossible for me not to have a profitable month now.

Number of Races 8

Traded 2, 0 losses, 2 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win £3.68

Daily Total Plus £5.18

Bank £626.50

July 31st

Starting Bank £626.50

The afternoon was scorching hot and all races on the flat, so I left it alone and did other stuff. I took the day off work as well lol.

I switched on BA for the evening jumps at Galway and the first race offered nothing and the second didn’t have the race make up to even allow me to watch it. When my internet started to play up while I was watching a race at Wolverhampton, I decided to call it a day.

Number of Races 3

Traded 0, 0 losses, 0 wins, Biggest loss N/A, biggest win N/A

Daily Total ZERO

Bank £626.50

Summary

So a great month for me, just 3 red days and I finished the month with 16 consecutive green days and a scratch.

I know one swallow doesn’t make a summer, but its a great first step.

My starting bank was £497.20 and finished at £626.50* for a £131.30 profit. So my liability for each race has now increased from £25 per race to £31.32 throughout the course of the month. I’m not planning to make any withdrawals for a while.

I have a separate excel spreadsheet I’m using which was supplied by one of the experienced guys in the Telegram room (John R) that shows what you can grow your bank to with steady consistent profits if you don’t make any withdrawals.

I don’t want to think too much about the money side of things at this stage but just a 20% increase in bank per month, (so £500 – £600 month one, £600 – £720 month two and so on) would see my bank double every 4 months. My bank has actually increased by about 26% in the month so I’m off to a good start.

I need to stay focussed though and not get carried away and stick 100% to the trading plan that Andrew at B4P has outlined for me. If you are interested, you can read my Back for Profit review here.

If I can continue in this vein concentrating only on the B4P process then my bankroll/stakes will increase slowly but surely over time.

I’m looking forward to August already!

*I had a £2 straight punt on 14th July so my acc should actually be £628.50. I can’t deposit £2 to make it right. I will deposit £12 and withdraw £10 to sort it out if the bet loses.

6 Comments

  • Green Filly

    Dave, I love reading your monthly reports and Im so happy to see this months results. To think it all started with a meeting at the NEC pub 🙂
    Seriously though, it is 100% the best IR service out there and Andrew is one of the most helpful, genuine guys around.

    • runlikeadrain

      I know, it’s weird but two of the people I met on another training course (you and Dr Ali) both told me some months later about Back for Profit and how good it is. After trying that other method and realising that it wasn’t for me, I definitely have you both to thank for encouraging me to join B4P.

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